Romvey v. Obama new guess

Elephant watchers: Romney 65% chance at winning, Obama 35. -- http://www.elephantwatcher.com/p/candidate-rankings.html

Note they accurately predicted the primaries last election, the general election last election, and the primaries this year.

Rove.com -- Romney is surging in state polls, but not in national. His EC (electoral college) count increased 16. Obama's only gain was NH, lean obama to safe obama. Where Romney gained strength:

North Carolina. Lean obama --> Toss up
Tennessee. Toss up --> lean Romney
Oklahoma. Safe Romney --> safer Romney?
Maine. Safe Obama --> Safe obama (Romney gained 8%)
New York. (wow). Safe Obama --> Safe Obama (Romney 3% gain)
New Jersey. Safe Obama --> Safe obama (romney gain 1%)
http://rove.com/election

Lets assume the romney surge continues.

REPUBLICAN 244

DEMOCRAT 294

 

http://ElectoralMap.net/2012/myPrediction.php?d=no0wqwr0nr0orwn0w

 

This will be updated as often as I can.