Romvey v. Obama new guess

Elephant watchers: Romney 65% chance at winning, Obama 35. -- http://www.elephantwatcher.com/p/candidate-rankings.html

Note they accurately predicted the primaries last election, the general election last election, and the primaries this year.

Rove.com -- Romney is surging in state polls, but not in national. His EC (electoral college) count increased 16. Obama's only gain was NH, lean obama to safe obama. Where Romney gained strength:

North Carolina. Lean obama --> Toss up
Tennessee. Toss up --> lean Romney
Oklahoma. Safe Romney --> safer Romney?
Maine. Safe Obama --> Safe obama (Romney gained 8%)
New York. (wow). Safe Obama --> Safe Obama (Romney 3% gain)
New Jersey. Safe Obama --> Safe obama (romney gain 1%)
http://rove.com/election

Lets assume the romney surge continues.

REPUBLICAN 244

DEMOCRAT 294

 

http://ElectoralMap.net/2012/myPrediction.php?d=no0wqwr0nr0orwn0w

 

This will be updated as often as I can. 

 

Gun Control Myths

1. Most Americans favor gun control

Americans are not dumb, and thats why they ignore the media and either look at facts or understand deterrence theory. Scientific polls show that people actually do not like costly regulation, police dictating who owns guns, and believe gun control laws are ineffective. This pew research poll showed 49% of Americans favored gun rights over gun control, and 45% favored gun control. (http://pewresearch.org/pubs/2251/social-issues-gun-rights-gay-marriage-abortion-presidential-campaign)

This Gallup poll examined a handgun ban law, 73% opposed 26% supported. Graph:


http://www.gallup.com/poll/150341/record-low-favor-handgun-ban.aspx

Interesting how this myth is far from reality, along with all other gun control myths.

2. Gun control works in Japan

This is always heard in these debates, look at this country low gun rates and low crime. America can be like that if we choose those laws. This is an argument showing they must be looking at blogs, liberal blogs with no sources anyway. ;)

"All criminologists studying the firearms issue reject simple comparisons of violent crime among foreign countries. It is impossible to draw valid conclusions without taking into account differences in each nation's collection of crime data, and their political, cultural, racial, religious, and economic disparities. Such factors are not only hard to compare, they are rarely, if ever, taken into account by "gun control" proponents. [...] (this quote within the quote is from David Kopel) "Contrary to the claims of the American gun control movement, gun control does not deserve credit for the low crime rates in Britain, Japan, or other nations." He noted that Israel and Switzerland, with more widespread rates of gun ownership, have crime rates comparable to or lower than the usual foreign examples."
 http://www.duke.edu/~gnsmith/articles/myths.htm

3. Gun control is crime control 

Is it really? Explain why when any gun control law is passed crime increases. This is often countered by correlation is not causation. I understand this, but with a STRONG correlation one can assume certain effects, whether it is responsible for the whole thing or not, occur. I am not idiotic enough to claim the law creates all of the rise, but I do think it has a large impact.

-- UK

http://www.justfacts.com/guncontrol.asp

-- Washington DC


"In 1976, Washington, D.C., instituted one of the strictest gun-control laws in the country. The murder rate since that time has risen 134 percent (77.8 per 100,000 population) while the overall rate for the country has declined 2 percent."
 http://www.fff.org/freedom/fd0210e.asp

-- Canada

their laws where passed in 1995

"The contrast between the rate of criminal violence in the United States and that in Canada is much more dramatic (figure 12). Over the past decade, the Canadian rate of violent crime has stayed basically flat while, in the United States during the same time period, the rate of violent crime has slid from 600 per 100,000 to 500 per 100,000 (Gannon 2001)"
www.gunsandcrime.org/faildxprmt.pdf

This means gun control had no effect in Canada.  

CONCLUSION: gun control has no effect on crime, or increases crime, and is not worth the cost of losing our liberties and a whole industry in the USA.
 
 

How does CO2 cause warming?

If it caused warming, natural increases would increase temperatures. CO2 would have to have a correlation for millions of years to cause warming, even if it was naturally made. We have I think ~380 ppm (parts per million) CO2 in our atmosphere. It causes the "scary" warming we see today. If this was true, then CO2 twice the amount of today would lead to higher temperatures (i.e. natural increase = temperature increase). I have never seen an article proving there has been a correlation for millions of years. Look at this:



Co2 might be high when temperatures are low, and vice versa. So how can this work? How can a light amount of 380 CO2 cause warming, if a ppm of 4500 did not 450 million years ago? No alarmist can answer that.

Lets look at the big ben. Big Ben is 316 ft high. If this was the atmosphere (using top to bottom) all CO2 is 1 1/4 inches total. Humans are responsible for 1 mm of that. Cool huh? If we took 1mm out of the big bang, or added 1mm, would it be much taller or shorter? No. It would have no visible effect. If someone argued it would lead to huge differences we would say "you are crazy" right? Same with CO2, your crazy.

CO2 is a natural cycle. If normal warming trends look like this (graph below) when why does this specific one have to be man made?


(IPCC)

Again, why does our natural normal looking trend have to be man made? it does not, because it is natural.

Hitler the liberal

A common misconception on Hitler is he was a right wing fascist, but these claims do not follow the facts.

We need to first look at icons, as icons are very important to the debate. Everyone agrees Stalin and the USSR where huge government  liberals, communists, or socialists right? Right. Although hitler stole the swastika from many civilizations, one of the influences may have been the RUSSIAN SWASTIKA. It was worn on the uniform of Russian troops. Also:


source: http://jonjayray.tripod.com/hitler.html 

Labor unions, liberal democratic thinking. Help the worker right? yes, common liberal theme. Now who said this quote?

As things stand today, the trade unions in my opinion cannot be dispensed with. On the contrary, they are among the most important institutions of the nation's economic life. Their significance lies not only in the social and political field, but even more in the general field of national politics. A people whose broad masses, through a sound trade-union movement, obtain the satisfaction of their living requirements and at the same time an education, will be tremendously strengthened in its power of resistance in the struggle for existence.[1]

Democratic senator? Obama? A labor union official? No, Hitler. Hitler was pro unions, as a national socialist he expanded unions. Now, which part of the spectrum does that sound like? 

Also:

  

Sources: http://thepeoplescube.com/peoples-blog/fascism-is-communism-lite-t3534.html#p66205

http://jonjayray.tripod.com/hitler.html

Guess what it says? Hate gays be conservative? No. It means we the workers have awoken, a pro union pro labor pro worker poster. For the nazis. Once again, sound socialist. 

Also, ever heard the term greenie, or green? The green movement? Hitler was fond of it, if you where wondering.  What Hitler did, according to PHD John Ray:

• "We recognize that separating humanity from nature, from the whole of life, leads to humankind's own destruction and to the death of nations. Only through a re-integration of humanity into the whole of nature can our people be made stronger . . .
  
  This striving toward connectedness with the totality of life, with nature itself, a nature into which we are born, this is the deepest meaning and the true essence of National Socialist thought." 
• Quote from non other then leading Nazi biologist, Ernst Lehmann
• Hitler banned experiments on animals  
• 2/3 of people in the nature clubs, nowadays could be called greenies, or by me liberty sucking hoaxers, joined the nazi party
• Caught youth attention by making a movement that says we are connected to earth
• Killing whales forests are bad, taking away out relationship from nature (nazi teaching)

• So Nazis where pro green, how does this relate to modern day activists? Watch: "In the name of speaking for the trees and other species, we are faced with a movement that would usher in an era of eco-fascism."Guess who taught this to their people? Hitler. Guess who said it? Greenpeace international leader [former] Patrick Moore. 

What was Hitlers leading argument for some killings?  Population control, living space, preventing overpopulation. [2] A liberal, Paul Ehrlich said: "The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate..."[1] Hitler said:

"Germany has an annual increase in population of nearly nine hundred thousand souls. The difficulty of feeding this army of new citizens must grow greater from year to year and ultimately end in catastrophe, unless ways and means are found to forestall the danger of starvation and misery in time... Without doubt the productivity of the soil can be increased up to a certain limit. But only up to a certain limit, and not continuously without end..... But even with the greatest limitation on the one hand and the utmost industry on other, here again a limit will one day be reached, created by the soil itself. With the utmost toil it will not be possible to obtain any more from it, and then, though postponed for a certain time, catastrophe again manifests itself". (Mein Kampf pp. 121 & 122)" [1, 2]

Guns, Hitler like conservatives like guns? Hardly.  Gun control was already popular in Germany, but the Nazis took a step further. Only politically reliable people could own guns, like what many socialists argue today. "only cops should have guns". Hitler aligns with the left yet again.

For more info: http://jonjayray.tripod.com/hitler.html

Hitler was a liberal.

Sources:

[1] http://jonjayray.tripod.com/hitler.html

[2] Mein Kampf