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Sunday, November 1, 2015

We must reauthorize the ExIm Bank: A Response to Graber

My friend John Graber has just published an article opposing the reauthorization of the ExIm bank. I understand his frustration. I am not a fan of corporate welfare, and in a perfect world the ExIm bank would not exist. But this world is not perfect. The simple fact is, the ExIm bank is an important part of our economy, and not authorizing it would be a big mistake. 

(1) Is ExIm corporate welfare?

To a degree, yes. Any subsidization, to businesses big or small, is corporate welfare. But Graber, citing former Democratic Representative Dennis Kucinich and Republican Representative Jim Jordan, describes the ExIm bank as "slush fund for a handful of well-connected megacorporations." This is simply untrue. In fact, 89% of ExIm authorizations went to small businesses

It is true that large companies receive more money from ExIm than do smaller businesses, but this statistic is meaningless. Big companies have different needs than small ones. Larger companies have much larger projects that they need to be funded. 

So, technically the answer is yes, but small businesses benefit just as much--if not moreso--than larger companies using ExIm loans. 

(2) ExIm too small to help economy? Does it hurt it?

Graber argues ExIm support helps only about 2% of trade, and of that help, it all goes to big corporations. For this reason, ExIm doesn't help the economy, and it may hurt it. This is not true. 

As I already noted, ExIm benefits many small businesses; but, the claim that ExIm is too small is a weak argument. ExIm is not meant to be a large part of trade. It is supposed to operate on the periphery. According to the Lexington Institute, "Although Ex-Im credit only supports a small share of U.S. exports, it has a disproportionate impact on job creation and GDP growth due to the leverage it gives exporters." Indeed, the report discusses how ExIm has drastically benefited Boeing. While foreign companies have ExIm-like banks much larger than ours, and benefit from other subsidies, the small amount of help ExIm provides to them drastically increases their staying power. Graber points to airline industries suffering under ExIm, but Boeing has hugely benefited. His job loss statistic is simply cherry picking and fails to look at the whole picture. If job growth is taken into account--job growth in industries that benefit from ExIm--the Lexington Institute notes that 20,000 jobs have been saved because of ExIm. This outweighs the 7,500 losses Graber points to. 

As foreign companies benefit from their foreign governments' subsidies and similar export banks, abolishing our own would actually make it a lot worse. 

ExIm is necessary for trade

According to the American Action Forum, "27 countries require support from an export credit agency before even considering a bid for a project from an American company. Those countries account for 40 percent of the world’s population and over 10 percent of global GDP. Without Ex-Im, U.S. companies can’t compete for project contracts in these countries, and that takes a huge toll on business."

Abolishing the ExIm bank would significantly reduce US exports. 

ExIm isn't perfect. If other countries didn't have these types of banks, I would favor abolishing it. Unfortunately, ExIm is necessary for global competitiveness. With China spending 8 times more in export subsidies than our bank, abolishing ExIm would further endanger our industries. 

Current 2016 predictions

Using the RCP demographic calculator, I have attempted to model what the election results would be with different GOP candidates. I assume the democratic nominee is Hillary Clinton. 

Trump

Whites: I slightly increases Trump's victory margin among whites and give him 61%, but leave turnout at the same level as the 2012 election. 
Hispanics: As Trump has a 14% favorable rating among Hispanics, but 79% are familiar with him, I am generous and give him 20% of the Hispanic vote BUT I increase turnout as his comments against Mexicans will likely make them angry and drive them to the polls. 
Blacks: I increase black turnout because they have had an increasing turnout level since 2000 even before Obama ran for office. I keep his share of Black voters the same as Romney's -- 11%. 
Asians: I lower Asian support for Trump versus Romney by 1% to 30%. I keep turnout the same. 

Trump loses 157 - 381 and only garners 45.3% of the popular vote. 



Although I doubt Texas would go blue still, the overall projection looks reasonable. 

Bush

Whites: With only a 37% favorability rating among GOP voters, I actually lower his share of the white vote to 60%, but as it is a non-midterm presidential election, I slightly increase white voter turnout. 
Hispanics: Bush actually has a decent favorability rating with hispanics, currently the best in the field, so I give him 40% of the Hispanic vote -- his brother got 44% in 2004, and as Jeb can speak fluent Spanish, I am giving him the benefit of the doubt. I slightly increase Hispanic turnout to 50%. 
Blacks: At least Jeb Bush is trying when it comes to African Americans. I give him a modest boost, but nothing significant: he gets 15% of the black vote, again turnout increases because it is part of a long-term trend.
Asians: I leave Asian turnout and percent the same as 2012. 


Jeb Bush loses 266 - 272, but interestingly he wins the popular vote 50.3 - 49.7, however, this is too small a difference to say he would win the popular vote. For all intents and purposes, the PV is tied. 








Marco Rubio

Whites: I increase Rubio's portion of the white vote to 62%, as he is a dynamic candidate who I believe would be able to win more whites despite his ethnic difference. I also slightly increase white voter turnout to 65%. 
Hispanics: While Rubio's favorability among Hispanics is slightly lower than Jeb Bush, I give him a larger percent of the Hispanic vote. His fluency in Spanish is the same as Bush, but being able to tell his story of rising from nothing will resonate among Hispanic voters because he grew up in the same situation as they have (or are currently living). I think Rubio could win 50% of the Hispanic vote, but I give him 45% as I don't want to overestimate. I also increase Hispanic turnout to 50% as those that do vote for Rubio may do so to make history--he would benefit from the same thing Obama benefited from in 2008. 
Blacks: I don't see Rubio winning over many African American voters. I increase turnout to 68% to follow the historical trends. I give Rubio a slight boost -- 10% of the African American vote (compared to 6% for Romney) simply because Rubio is much more talented than any GOP candidate since Reagan. 
Asians: I leave Asian turnout and percent the same as 2012. 

Rubio wins 300 - 238, and wins the popular vote 51.6% to Hillary's 48.4%. However, this simulation gave Rubio PA, which is debatable, so assuming he loses PA he wins 285 - 253, a more reasonable prediction. 



Rubio seems to do best with my assumptions. The tool is linked above, so you can make your own predictions -- tell me what you think!