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Sunday, September 30, 2012

Homosexual parenting review

Homosexual preference: a comparison 

What is interesting about the debate is how much things perceived as "anti" gay are not reported. Think about it, how often do you hear "study disproves homosexual parents harm children" as a headline? Never, even though these studies are very numerous. Now, there are facts agreed upon in this debate by both sides (shocking, isn't it). Dr. Trayce Hansen, PHD, has a blog summarizing one of the accepted facts. First, 8-21% of those raised by homosexuals have non-heterosexual preferences, and the number for the overall population is 2%. If these percentages are true, children raised by homosexuals are 4-10 times more likely to be non-heterosexuals. Although these facts are still disputed amongst the most extreme homosexual advocates, there is proof the findings to the contrary conceal their evidence or cherry pick their data. To be considered a scientist, one has to put aside their biases and straightforward report their findings. Those that don't are not scientifically viable and, therefore, are considered activists. Dr. Hansen notes, this lends credence to the fact environmental factors, not genes, cause homosexuality (and cause difference in their children). (Hansen 2008)

A review of the studies 

Dr. Hansen again has a handy summary. To avoid bias in her report, though, she only reviewed studies by pro homosexual writers (in other words, writers that are against their findings). So no accusation of bias can be argued. In many studies that claim no difference, they will try to hide many differences arguing it is not large. However many studies looking into those differences give contrary results. Stacey and Biblartz (2001) find many differences in children raised by homosexual and heterosexual parents. Most of those differences are negative, in other words those raised by homosexuals are worse off. Many studies (Belcastro, Gramlich, Nicholson, Price, and Wilson, 1993; Baumrind, 1995) have found the studies claiming no differences are so flawed, no definitive conclusions can be made. Lerner and Nagai (2001) go as far to say no conclusions can be made. Now, it would be logical to assume these children will be different, as children raised in different environments have different values, habits, criminal records etc. So, claiming no different is really pointless. Debate should be on whether these differences are negative to development and whether or not they are large and common differences (observe a trend). After reviewing 9 studies, Hansen reports: 


The preceding nine studies suggest that children raised by homosexual or bisexual parents are approximately 7 times more likely than the general population to develop a non-heterosexual sexual preference. These findings are not surprising. ... [T]he research studies we have to date suggest that non-heterosexuals are far more likely to raise non-heterosexual children than heterosexuals.” (Hansen 2008, "review")

A recent study, published in July 2012, notes significant differences in homosexual children. The study, by the way, uses regression to control for the marriage legality difference. The study finds homosexuals are more promiscuous and are less stable. Children like stability. This difference--even when controlling for the marriage factor--exists, and the non-stability harms the child's development and leads to more drug use, homosexual attraction, molestation, criminal activity, lower schooling achievement, etc. The differences exist, and it is hard to deny them. (Regnerus 2012).

A. Dean Byrd, the former president of NARTH, published a review in 2005. His results are not shocking. He finds and cites many studies proving male and female love is shown differently towards a child (a woman is more protective, for example, the father more adventurous) and both are needed to foster proper development. He also cites Stacey and Biblattz (2001), which bolsters his claim. He finds that, when you look at the evidence, the balance of evidence supports a traditionalists view. (Byrd 2005).

Maggie Gallagher and Joshua Baker have found similar results. According to their study, studies finding no difference all have miniscule sample sizes and make many mistakes. Most had non random sample sizes. Many of them would take wealthy homosexuals and compare to single, middle class, divorced heterosexuals obviously slanting the results in favor to the homosexuals. Many social scientists that have been called by gay activists in the courts actually say they cannot make any valid conclusions, as the evidence is so weak. (Maggie and Baker 2004)

Lynn D. Wardle notes in a 1997 study,

“Thus, collectively, the social sciences studies purporting to show that children raised by parents who engage in homosexual behavior are not subject to any significantly enhanced risks are flawed methodologically and analytically, and fall short of the standards of reliability needed to sustain such conclusions.” (Wardle 1997)
Wait wait wait, the APA says... Sorry, the APA has been refuted by Loren Marks this summer in July. As Marks notes,

“Differences have recurred in connection with myriad issues of societal-level [in children raised by homosexuals] concern including: (a) health, mortality, and suicide risks, (b) drug and alcohol abuse, (c) criminality and incarceration, (d) intergenerational poverty, (e) education and/or labor force contribution, (f) early sexual activity and early childbearing, and (g) divorce rates as adults. … Not a single study has found children of lesbian or gay parents to be disadvantaged in any significant respect relative to children of heterosexual parents.” (Marks 2012)
A 1996 study in Australia further bolsters my position. Here are the results:

Language Achievement: Married 7.7, Cohabiting 6.8, Homosexual 5.5
Mathematics Achievement: Married 7.9, Cohabiting 7.0, Homosexual 5.5
Social Studies Achievement Married 7.3, Cohabiting 7.0, Homosexual 7.6
Sport Interest/Involvement Married: 8.9, Cohabiting 8.3, Homosexual 5.9
Sociability/Popularity: Married 7.5, Cohabiting 6.5, Homosexual 5.0
School/Learning Attitude Married: 7.5, Cohabiting 6.8, Homosexual 6.5
Parent-School Relationships Married: 7.5, Cohabiting 6.0, Homosexual 5.0
Support with Homework Married 7.0, Cohabiting 6.5, Homosexual 5.5
Parental Aspirations Married 8.1, Cohabiting 7.4, Homosexual 6.5 (Sarantakos 1996)

Um... is it me or do children raised by homosexuals do the worse in all categories (even against single parent families) except one?

 A 1993 study again proves my point. Belcastro and Gramlich note,
“A disturbing revelation was that some of the published works had to disregard their own results in order to conclude that homosexuals were fit parents. We believe that the system of manuscript review by peers, for minimum scientific standards of research, was compromised in several of these studies.
The conclusion that there are no significant differences in children reared by lesbian mothers versus heterosexual mothers is not supported by the published research data base.” (Belcastro and Gramlich 1993)
The last part was not worded well, so in other words it was saying the no difference assumption is not supported by the current research.

George Rekers* and Mark Kilgus published a 2002 study. They note,

“This article discovered that with very few exceptions, the existing studies on homosexual parenting are methodologically flawed and they should be considered no more than exploratory pilot work which suggest directions for rigorous research studies.” (Rekers and Kilgus, 2002)
*Even though there is controversy about his orientation (some rumors claim he hired a male prostitute in Europe) it does not invalidate his study. Invalidating his work over his preferences is the genetic fallacy, for info on the genetic fallacy see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_fallacy

CONCLUSION:

Children raised by homosexuals are different, and that's a fact.


Bibliography:
Trayce Hansen, PHD, Pro-Homosexual Researchers Conceal Findings:  Children Raised by Openly Homosexual Parents More Likely to Engage in Homosexuality 2008, <http://www.drtraycehansen.com/Pages/writings_prohomo.html>. 
Trayce Hansen PHD, A Review and Analysis of Research Studies Which Assessed Sexual Preference of Children Raised by Homosexuals, 2008, <http://www.drtraycehansen.com/Pages/writings_sexpref.html>
Mark Regnerus, “How different are the adult children of parents who have same-sex relationships? Findings from the New Family Structures Study,” Social Science Research Vol 41, Issue 4 (July 2012)
A. Dean Byrd, Ph.D. “Gender Complimentary and Child-rearing: Where Tradition and Science agree” QUINNEY COLLEGE OF LAW, Vol. 6, (2005) 
Maggie Gallagher and Joshua K. Baker “Do Moms And Dads Matter? Evidence From The Social Sciences On Family structure And The Best Interests Of The Child” Margins Law Journal, (2004)
Lynn D. Wardle, “The Potential Impact of Homosexual Parenting on Children.” University of Illinois Law Review, (1997)
 Loren Marks. Same-sex Parenting and Children’s Outcomes: A Closer Examination of the American Psychological Association’s Brief on Lesbian and Gay Parenting. Social Science Research 41.4 (2012)
S. Sarantakos, Children in three contexts: Family, education, and social development. Children Australia, (1996)
 Belcastro, P., Gramlish, T., Nicholson, T., Price, J., Wilson, R. "A review of data-based studies addressing the effects of homosexual parenting on children's sexual and social functioning." Journal of Divorce amd Remarriage 20, 1/2:105-122. (1993)
George Rekers and Mark Kilgus, “Studies of Homosexual Parenting: A Critical Review.” Regent University Law Review. 2001-2002, Vol. 14, No. 2, 343-382.

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Death penalty deterrence

Many claim the death penalty is not a deterrent, however this view is totally wrong. A study in 1985 by economist Stephan K. Layson claimed 18 lives where saved by each execution. The study also argued if you raise death penalty sentencing by 1%, you save 105 lives. In 1972-1976 a temporary suspension of capital punishment occured. Texas A & M researcher Karl Spence notes:
While some [death penalty] abolitionists try to face down the results of their disastrous experiment and still argue to the contrary, the...[data] concludes that a substantial deterrent effect has been observed...In six months, more Americans are murdered than have killed by execution in this entire century...Until we begin to fight crime in earnest [by using the death penalty], every person who dies at a criminal's hands is a victim of our inaction.[1]
Wesley Lowe makes a cool little graph:






Here is a short list of studies claiming deterrence (list is larger now--look up the CJLF tally, but this highlights some of the older studies).

(2003) Emory University Study finds each execution saves 18 lives, margin of error is ten (so it could be 28 or 8).
(2003) Naci Moacan finds each execution saves 5-6 lives, and every time someone is let out of death row 1 life is lost (so more execution more lives saved)
(2001) Study in Texas found the state wide moratorium caused 150 deaths to homocide
(2001) Professor Liu says aboloshing the DP raises crime by ending one deterrent effect (the DP) and makes it seem the state is easy on crime and lowers the deterrent effect of prison, too.
(2003) Each execution leads to 5 less murders
(2003) Each execution deters 3-25 murders
(2003) Dezhbakhsh and Shepherd argued: "The results are boldly clear: executions deter murders and murder rates increase substantially during moratoriums. The results are consistent across before-and-after comparisons and regressions regardless of the data's aggregation level, the time period, or the specific variable to measure executions."[2]

 The debate has changed dramatically since then. In 2006 Donahue and Wolfers have claimed to have destroyed the deterrent hypothesis, but their analysis was refuted by Zimmerman 2009, Cloninger & Marchesini 2009, Dezhbakhsh & Rubin 2010, and a new study by Frakes & Harding 2009 says the death penalty reduces child murder 20%.[3] Most studies criticize the deterrence work with the same objections all answered by these rebuttal papers to Donahue and Wolfers 2006. The main criticism is the results are not robust and, therefore, are susceptible to bias. What is funny is in many of these studies the authors even admit they are against the death penalty (Shepard in one of the PDF's I read said he opposed it). And Nanci Moacan who defended his analysis early on noted:
"Science does really draw a conclusion. It did. There is no question about it. . . . The conclusion is there is a deterrent effect. . . . The results are robust, they don't really go away. I oppose the death penalty. But my results show that the death penalty (deters). What am I going to do, hide them?"[4]
John Lott, an economist, noted in his Fox News column that 9 out of twelve economic studies on the issue of deterrence found a deterrent effect (not counting his 2007 study in his book Freedomnomics published after this article and which I will soon have the pleasure to read) and he essentially gets the same statistics as the studies mentioned. Lott notes:
Generally, the studies over the last decade that examined how the murder rates in each state changed as they changed their execution rate found that each execution saved the lives of roughly 15 to 18 potential murder victims. Overall, the rise in executions during the 1990s accounts for about 12 to 14 percent of the overall drop in murders.[5]
A 1999 study from Isaac Ehrlich and Liu which was the oldest study after 1996 I could find in the internet (via jstor). Ehrlich uses a corrected version of his statistical analysis which many viewed unfit in his original study in the seventies; he argued it corrects the problems cited by anti capital punishment academics. The study shows that deterrence theory is not “doubtful” and has significant evidence behind the assertion. His study, however, he conceded does not “prove” deterrence, more work is needed, however he also argues he offers significant evidence for that conclusion. He concludes that, on balance, stricter punishments (like the DP) on balance decrease crime.[6]

(the quotes look different different because I copied and pasted this from an online debate I had)

 The final study I will look at in depth is the 2004 study by Shepard (he has done a lot of work in the field). His study is the most commonly heard statistic in the issue. He has three main findings. 1) On average, each execution saves 3 lives, 2) the study shows it benefits African Americans the most, saving 1.5 African America lives, one person of white decent, and .5 of other people. (If you understand statistics the decimals showing up make sense), and 3) shortening time on death row decreases murder. Reducing time on death row by 2.75 years saves one additional life.[7]

 Murray Rothbard noted in 1978:

Another common liberal complaint is that the death penalty does not deter murder from being committed. All sorts of statistics are slung back and forth trying to "prove" or disprove this claim. While it is impossible to prove the degree of deterrence, it seems indisputable that some murders would be deterred by the death penalty. Sometimes the liberal argument comes perilously close to maintaining that no punishment deters any crime — a manifestly absurd view that could easily be tested by removing all legal penalties for nonpayment of income tax and seeing if there is any reduction in the taxes paid. (Wanna bet?) Furthermore, the murderer himself is certainly "deterred" from any repetition of his crime — and quite permanently.[8]
 Dudley Sharp (JFA) noted in 1997:

6% of young adults paroled in 1978 after having been convicted of murder were arrested for murder again within 6 years of release. ... Of the roughly 52,000 state prison inmates serving time for murder in 1984, an estimated 810 had previously been convicted of murder and had killed 821 persons following their previous murder convictions. Executing each of these inmates would have saved 821 lives." (41, 1 Stanford Law Review, 11/88, pg. 153)  Using a 75% murder clearance rate, it is most probable that the actual number of lives saved would have been 1026, or fifty times the number legally executed that year. This suggests that some 10,000 persons have been murdered, since 1971, by those who had previously committed additional murders (JFA).[9]
 Current numbers since 1973 show 28,000 recidivist murders have occurred, so if the death penalty was applied in all of these cases 28,000 lives would have been saved (not including deterrence).[10]

Summary:

(1) The death penalty saves MANY lives per execution, 1,254 - 35,112 lives saved since 1973. 
(2) The death penalty prevents recidivism and if execution was always used for murder 821 lives would be saved each year (1988 study) or 28,000 lives saved total (BJS data from 2007)

Either way, the DP saves lives. 




1. http://www.wesleylowe.com/cp.html#deter
2. Studies from: http://www.wesleylowe.com/deter.html
3. http://www.cjlf.org/deathpenalty/dpdeterrence.htm
4. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/11/AR2007061100406.html
5. http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,284336,00.html
6. Isaac Ehrlich and Zhiqiang Liu. “Sensitivity Analyses of the Deterrence Hypothesis: Let's Keep the Econ in Econometrics”, Journal of Law and Economics, Vol. 42, No. S1, (April 1996), 455-488.
7.  Joanna M. Shepherd, “Murders of Passion, Execution Delays, and the Deterrence of Capital Punishment,” Journal of Legal Studies, Vol. 33 (June 2004), 283-321.
8.  http://mises.org/daily/4468
9. http://www.prodeathpenalty.com/dp.html#B.Deterrence
10. http://homicidesurvivors.com/2012/04/06/innocents-more-at-risk-without-death-penalty.aspx