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Friday, October 19, 2012

How many people are homosexual? And, what does it mean for the gay gene debate.

A new Gallup poll has been released showing only about 3.4% of the population is homosexual:

The inaugural results of a new Gallup question -- posed to more than 120,000 U.S. adults thus far -- shows that 3.4% say "yes" when asked if they identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual, or transgender. ... This is the largest single study of the distribution of the lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) population in the U.S. on record. ... Adults aged 18 to 29 (6.4%) are more than three times as likely as seniors aged 65 and older (1.9%) to identify as LGBT. Among those aged 30 to 64, LGBT identity declines with age -- at 3.2% for 30- to 49-year-olds and 2.6% for 50- to 64-year-olds.
What I find interesting is that those who are younger identify as LGBT more often then older people. Due to the fact I think homosexuality is caused by environmental factors, it proves the point that higher acceptance levels increases the chance one engages in homosexual acts or is a homosexual. These numbers merely back the social conservative opinion, and a plethora of academic studies.

Thursday, October 18, 2012

Gay Marriage will not lower suicide rates

In debating homosexuality, one is likely to encounter something using this logic.

1. Homosexuals are more at risk for suicide
2. The cause is discrimination
3. Gay marriage will solve the problem.

I will go down each point and address each of them.

1 - Homosexuals are more likely to commit suicide then heterosexuals

This is true. The gay crowd often does not agree with this, however the intelligent ones agree with this argument and use it to their advantage. Depending on the study, the facts differ. For example, one study claims homosexuals are 5 times more likely to commit suicide then heterosexuals [1]. 73% of psychiatrists argue homosexuals are more "unhappy" then heterosexuals. 20-30% of homosexuals are alcoholics, and 78% of homosexuals have STD's. 50% of suicides are done by homosexuals when they are only 1-4% of the population. Some estimates say they are 25 times more likely to commit suicide [2]. N.E. Whitehead uses the 8 times figure.

2 - The cause is discrimination

Of the 73% of doctors who think homosexuals are more unhappy, 70% think the cause is not discrimination. As stated, the many other problems in the homosexual community (pedophilia, drugs, STD's. high abuse rates [homosexual vs homosexual] etc.) cause suicide [2]. NARTH breaks it down this way:

Early Self-Identification as Gay: Subjects who had viewed themselves as homosexual or bisexual at an earlier age were more likely to attempt suicide.
Early Sexual Activity: Teens who had attempted suicide were more likely to have had sexual experiences at an early age.
Broken Homes: Only 27% of suicide attempters had parents who were married (vs. 50% of the non-attempters).
Sexual Molestation: 61% of the suicide attempters had been sexually abused (vs. only 29% of the non-attempters).
Illegal Drug Use: 85% of the attempters had used illicit drugs (vs. 63% of non-attempters).
Illegal Activities: 51% of the attempters had been arrested (vs. only 28% of non-attempters).
Prostitution: 29% of the attempters had been involved in prostitution (vs. 17% of non-attempters).
Gender Conflicts: 36.6% of the attempters were classified as feminine (vs. 17.7% of non-attempters) [3].

Other studies find 2/3 of gay suicides are because of relationships, not discrimination. Studies done in the Netherlands--which is tolerant of gays and has gay marriage--are at higher risk of suicide then heterosexuals hinting the fact discrimination is likely not the cause [4].

N.E. Whitehead notes in a 2010 study that homosexuals are sexually abused more often and that those people where more at risk for suicide then other homosexuals meaning sexual abuse may be a reason. Gender discrimination was found to have little effect, however racial discrimination seems to have a large effect. There is a correlation with AIDS/HIV and poor mental health, and homosexuals are at higher risk of getting AIDS. They also note there is little support for the discrimination hypothesis in academic circles. Abuse from parents is more likely to cause suicide then societal discrimination, and allowing gay marriage would not solve parental abuse, would it? Unlikely, especially due to the fact homosexuals are more likely to be pedophiles. Two studies, Whitehead notes, in 1995 argue discrimination and bullying is not the reason most homosexuals do suicide. A 1988 study also finds areas where homosexuality is accepted have little difference in suicide rates compared to the "bigoted" USA. A 2002 study really is a killer, as the suicide rate has remained stable and the age which suicide is usually committed (the mean) is dropping, as the acceptance for homosexuality rises. This shows acceptance goes up, more/no change in suicide occurs. A 2006 study finds most suicides are not caused by discrimination, rather other factors usually predominate. Most gay suicides are done by blacks, further supporting the point that racial, not gender, discrimination is the cause. A 2009 meta analysis and a 2003 study both find legalization of marriage and supporting homosexuality has no effect on the suicide rate. Another 1995 study finds discrimination only accounts for 5% of the gay suicides. A 1978 study (the one cited above, source 4) argues relationships are mostly the cause for suicide. A 1995 book studies the causes for gay suicide, and it is mostly caused by relationship problems. Overall, homosexual suicide is mostly intrinsic and cannot be solved with gay marriage [5].

Now, I am not arguing no homosexual has been killed because of discrimination or bullying, however I am arguing that reason is not a large contributor to gay suicide, and this leads me to believe SSM wont lower suicides.

3 - Marriage will help!

Unlikely. Divorce rates are higher among homosexual couples in countries where SSM is legal and abuse is also high. In Denmark, where gays are tolerated, their have extremely high suicide rates even with these "tolerant" laws [6].

Conclusion:

SSM will not lower suicide rates, please stop with these weak arguments if you support SSM.



1. Gilbert, Kathleen. "LifeSiteNews Mobile | Study: Gay Teens Five times More Likely to Attempt Suicide." LifeSiteNews., 29 Apr. 2011. Web. 18 Oct. 2012. <http://www.lifesitenews.com/news/study-gay-teens-five-times-more-likely-to-attempt-suicide/>.
2.  Joseph, Frank, M.D. "Statistics on Homosexuals - 1978 to 1994." Statistics on Homosexuals - 1978 to 1994. Tradition in Action, 15 Oct. 2005. Web. 18 Oct. 2012. <http://www.traditioninaction.org/HotTopics/a02rStatistcs.html>.
3. O'Leary, Dale. "Gay Teens and Attempted Suicide." Gay Teens and Attempted Suicide. National Association for Research & Therapy of Homosexuality, n.d. Web. 18 Oct. 2012. <http://www.narth.com/docs/gayteens.html>.
4. "Gay Men Differ From Heterosexuals In Suicidality: Netherlands Study." Gay Men Differ From Heterosexuals In Suicidality: Netherlands Study. National Association for Research & Therapy of Homosexuality, 17 Oct. 2006. Web. 18 Oct. 2012. <http://www.narth.com/docs/netherlands.html>.
5.  Whitley, N.E. "Homosexuality and Co-Morbididities: Research and Therapeutic Implications." Journal of Human Sexuality 2 (2010): 124-75.  2010.
6. Whitehead, N.E. "Male Gay Partnerships No Defence against Suicide." Male Gay Partnerships No Defence against Suicide. N.p., Jan. 2010. Web. 18 Oct. 2012. <http://www.mygenes.co.nz/suicide.htm>.

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

What the new jobs report means

I read a good article by economist John Lott today, and lets see his view on the new jobs report:

"Unfortunately, even this anemic growth in the total number of jobs only came about because several hundred thousand full-time workers were forced to accept part-time work. While total jobs rose by 114,000, people who are classified by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as "part time for economic reasons" soared from about 8 million to 8.6 million, a 581,000 increase. 

There are two different reasons for this. Some job seekers have had to settle for only part-time jobs because they have failed to find full-time employment. Other workers who have stayed at their old firm have found that their jobs were downgraded from full-time to part-time status due to a downturn in the demand for the firm's products. 

This second reason is the most important one, and it shows that the positive unemployment numbers are not much reason to cheer. After all, businesses shifting workers from full-time to part-time in large numbers is not signaling a general economics upswing.

Indeed, this factor is the reason that the government's broader measure of unemployment has remained unchanged at 14.7 percent (the so-called U6 measure), still well above 14.2% rate when Obama became president.

This increase in part-time jobs was somewhat offset by those who voluntarily cut back on part-time work, a drop in part-time jobs for “non-economic reasons.” These are people who choose part-time jobs because of family obligations. Some also cut back to part-time because they are in going to school.

A drop in full-time employment of 216,000 shows that the economy is still not performing well. The lower unemployment numbers do not reflect more people working so much as they show Americans being forced into part-time work."

A few more studies done on conceal carry (CCW)

A few more studies have been published since 2011 looking into the conceal carry debate. In this case, we are looking at its effects on crime. Most studies have found some decrease in crime. In fact, in many of the studies where they claim no effect there is actually data they present that shows a decrease in crime. When looking at the data, nearly all studies prove some type of decrease in crime. However, a few studies find an increase. In 2003, Ayres and Donahue posted an analysis in the Stanford law review finding CCW had no effect on crime, and in many cases had a definite increase. So, I will go down the list of the studies claiming an increase in crime and evaluate them.

A) Ayres and Donahue 2003

This article was the first to argue an increase in crime (academically, at least, mainly because its nearly impossible to argue the position).

The commonly argued "robbery effect" argues after CCW, robbery continues to rise in the states after this law meaning no correlation exists. Sadly, this argument is a great example of cherry picking. Although on average robbery did increase (still) after the CCW law was passed, one must look first at the former trends. Before these bills became laws, robbery was increasing. After these laws where passed, yes, robbery kept raising but at a lower rate. This indicates a correlation of some sort does exist as the rate of increase decreased substantially, effectively proving CCW has some type of correlation. Further research finds that initial increase is not significant (as noted), but over the course of time states that passed these laws did have an overall downward trend. Ayres and Donahue (A and D) merely looked into before/after averages, which weakens their results. As Plassman, Lott, and Whitley note, "While Ayres  and Donohue acknowledge the problems in using simple before and-after average in evaluating the  impact of the law, yet they do not consistently apply that insight when discussing the evidence." In other words, A and D essentially admit their data is flawed effectively damaging the robbery effect hypothesis.

As for murder, A and D truly had to hide their results. Their own data showed a decrease in murder, however they tried to argue there was "little movement". A and D also mention the murder increase in Maine, but is that true? Not really, they had the wrong dates. Plassman et. al. notes, "The values for these four years show up in the data only because Ayres and Donohue  recode Maine’s right-to-carry law as going into effect in 1981 instead of 1985 as previous research had done." The murder only increased the 4 years before the law. As A and D added in those four years which should not have been implemented, it ruined the average showing an increase that never existed.

A and D argue rapes and assaults also raise after a CCW law is passed, however again the data is full of errors. The study using country level data had mixed results. Most of their data tables showed rape raising before the law, and falling after. Even after regression (a technique used to control for other variables [like crime cycles]) the results showed a decrease in murder. Only year did rape actually rise. In other words, rape decreased because of CCW most years and in only one did other factors erase CCW's deterrent effect. Using their state results (state data) after CCW rape declines for 10 years and stays below pre-CCW rates for at least 12 years. Only when Maine is the remaining state in the sample does rate rise. But remember, Maine in the study is not credible due to the date being changed, meaning in all honesty CCW decreases rape in all states. A and D's own data shows assaults decreasing after the law and assaults where 3% below the rate they used to be before the law.

Overall, the 2003 Ayres and Donahue study is not credible.

Reference: Plassmann, Florenz, John R. Lott, Jr., and John Whitley. "Confirming More Guns, Less Crime." Stanford Law Review (2003)

B) Aneja, Donahue, and Zhang, 2011

This is the biggest eye opener for me... but sadly, it is flawed like its younger cousin.

Here are the main criticisms:

  • The observations for county 2060 in Alaska are repeated 73 times for 1996.
  • It claimed (and used data from) Kansas in 1996 but the law was not passed until 2006. This obviously ruins the data as they have 10 years of irrelevant data that could easily throw the average off. 
  • The first year of data used in Florida was in 1989 but the law was passed in 1987. Now it is skewed as we are missing two years of potentially important data. 
  • South Dakota's first data was recorded dating at 1987 however the law was passed in 1985. Again, two years of important data, lost (the first years after a law is passed is crucial when determining its effects). 
Interestingly enough, the NRC had no conclusion on Lott's work. They did not say he was wrong, however they did not say he was right. But, to me, this makes me sad they cannot admit Lott is correct! Their own data is almost exactly the same as Lott's!Only once was it different—for murder—however their results where only different by .03. So, on balance, Lott's work has really been replicated by the NRC when the Aneja, Donahue, and Zhang data has not been replicated. Lott et. al. responded to Aneja, Donahue, and Zhang (ADZ), "ADZ couldn’t replicate the NRC results with the NRC data. They jumped to the conclusion that it was due to bad data from Lott. We now know that the data that Lott provided to the NRC was the same as that provided to hundreds of other researchers. Using Lott’s data, we could we replicate the NRC results for both the dummy variable and trend model, corresponding to the NRC Tables 6-1 and 6-2 and, since the NRC was also able to replicate the original Lott and Mustard results, the NRC must have been using the same data. We were also able to replicate the NRC “no covariate” model for the 1977-2000 sample. We find it hard to believe that ADZ couldn’t replicate those results with the NRC data. Researchers cannot be held responsible for errors committed by others who request their data."

Concluding Lott's data is flawed is odd, when Donahue spoke so kindly upon the NRC data in his debate on NPR with Lott. Donahue, then, really likes the NRC data, in doing so he must concede one of two things. One, the NRC and Lott used the same data and Lott's data is clean. Or two, Lott originally had bad data but in this 2012 study Lott uses a better technique for determining the effects of CCW and therefore agrees with their conclusion (that it lowers crime). Either way, he admits CCW decreases crime or that his hypothesis is weaker then he makes others believe. I would also like to note James Q. Wilson—one of those on the NRC committee and looked at the data the NRC provided—was completely justified for arguing CCW decreased crime and that the data is not corrupt.

To conclude on this study:

a) its data is highly flawed and leaves out either data or adds unnecessary data, both of which severely harm their results and lead to obvious flaws invalidating their conclusion.
b) data supports the more guns less crime hypothesis.

 Reference: The paper can be found here: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2026957


Two studies published in 2012

1) The first one I recently cited. The first studies abstract: "In a recent article, Aneja, Donohue and Zhang claim that they are unable to replicate the regressions published by the National Research Council in Chapter 6 of Firearms and Violence. They conclude that the NRC regressions must have been based on bad data supplied by John Lott. The implication is that earlier studies that found that right-to-carry laws reduced crime were flawed because of bad data. However, we can replicate the NRC results with Lott’s original data and with the data set used by the NRC. The earlier studies are not flawed by bad data. 

2) The second study is only written by John Lott. He does an analysis on the current research and finds 18 studies find deterrence, one (only one) study finds an increase in crime, and 10 claim to have found no effect (which is false, Lott in 2010 in MGLC proves their data supports a decrease). By the way, he is only counting top-tier studies (the 2003 A and D article is not in the refereed category meaning they are not counted in the results.) But, if we count ALL of the studies including those in non-refereed journals,  21 find deterrence, 11 find no effect, and 3 find an increase in crime. Due to the fact this study was written before his other 2012 study, we find 22 have deterrence, double the amount that claim no effect and over 7 times more then those which claim an increase. Lott concludes, "In state after state when right-to-carry laws have been adopted, the entire debate [on whether or not crime will explode] quickly becomes a non-issue within a yearafter the laws are passed."

Conclusion:

Overall, it seems obvious the argument for CCW leading to large increases in crime is beginning to crumble and the argument for passing conceal carry laws is increasing every passing day. I hope Americans, politicians, and judges wake up to these facts and conclude CCW is a good idea and should be passed in every state. And for those who currently restrict teachers (and others) from carrying these guns in their work areas should consider changing these laws.
 

Sunday, October 7, 2012

Summary on twin tudies and SSA

In the last post I did, which was short, involved brain studies. Instead of criticizing the famous twin study, Bailey and Pillard 1991. Their analysis is highly flawed, and due to the fact I don't feel qualified to criticize this study I will merely post a link where professionals refute its findings (http://www.trueorigin.org/gaygene01.asp).

Now, many twin studies have argued biology causes homosexuality. Ironically, this is a mere illusion and the majority of twin studies find environmental factors cause homosexuality. And onto the list.

  • "[This]  paper, however, finds  using twin studies, that chance (nonshared environmental factors) is indeed predominant,  and shows that biological factors—like genetic factors—are likely to contribute less than  20% of the variance in the development of SSA"
 Whitehead, Neil E. "Neither Genes nor Choice: Same-Sex Attraction Is Mostly a Unique Reaction to Environmental Factors." Journal of Human Sexuality (2011)

  • "These very complex comparisons of identical twins and non-identical twins definitively rule out genetic determinism. Identical twins with identical genes are about 11-14% concordant for SSA. If homosexuality were “genetic,” identical co-twins of homosexual men and women would also be homosexual 100% of the time. In classic twin studies the genetic fraction is less than 23% for men and 37% for women, and may be as low as 10%. Twin studies continue to find steadily lower genetic input into homosexuality as methodology improves and samples become larger. Everyone has at least a 10% genetic influence in their behavior— because without genes there can be no human behavior of any kind. Twin studies show that individualistic reactions to chance events (in which one identical twin reacts differently from the other) are by far the strongest contributors to homosexuality. In other words personal individual reactions to random events are a strong factor."
 Whitehead, Neil, and Briar Whitehead. My Genes Made Me Do It!: [a Scientific Look at Sexual Orientation]. Lafayette, LA: Huntington House, 1999.
*Note I used the 2010 updated version of this book, which can be read for FREE online

  • "Twin studies are favorites of mine because of the potential light they throw on the origins of same-sex attractions (SSA). The latest one (Santtila et al., 2008) is three times larger than any previous study - in fact, larger than all the rest put together. ... Are genetic contribution results of say 27% important? No. In the twin studies world the influence would be classified as weak to modest. And any influence is indirect - it is likely to be something like an innate tendency to be very sensitive to the opinions of others. However, even this weak or modest genetic contribution is probably greatly overstated. ... The results, by my calculations, do in fact, reinforce one conclusion drawn from previous studies. That is, if one identical twin--male or female--has SSA, the chances are only about 10% that the co-twin also has it. In other words, identical twins usually differ for SSA."

Whitehead, Neil E. "Latest Twin Study Confirms Genetic Contribution To SSA Is Minor." Latest Twin Study Confirms Genetic Contribution To SSA Is Minor. National Association for Research & Therapy of Homosexuality, 2008. Web. 07 Oct. 2012. <http://narth.com/docs/isminor.html>.

  • "The cordance rate for homosexuality in non-twin biologic brothers was only 9.2 percent—significantly lower than that required by a simple genetic hypothesis, which, on the basis of shared genetic material, would predict similar concordance rates for dizygotic twins and non- twin rates were similar for nontwin biologic brothers (9.2 percent) andgenetically unrelated adoptive brothers (11.0 percent) is at odds witha simple genetic hypothesis, which would predict a higher concor-dance rate for biologic siblings."
 Byne, William, and Bruce Parsons. "Human Sexual Orientation: The Biologic Theories Reappraised." Archives of General Psychiatry 50 (1993)

  • "For men, no significant genetic effects were found for number of opposite- and
    same-sex sexual encounters, nor for sexual orientation."
 Hershberger, Scott. "A Twin Registry Study of Male and Female Sexual Orientation." The Journal of Sex Research. 1997.

Out of the hundreds of studies that support my position, I only cited a few. However, if readers wish to continue I highly recommend this book available in PDF format. It reviews thousands of studies and concludes homosexuality is not genetic (http://www.mygenes.co.nz/).

Thursday, October 4, 2012

Are brains gay?

There is a "debate" in America on the biological basis for homosexuality. The arguments from all sides are strongly opinionated, so where are the scientific facts?

The origins of the gay brain theory originated in 1991 with the study published by Simon LeVay, in which he studied the brain of homosexual and heterosexual men. He specifically targeted the hypothalamus—and even more specifically INAH—which is known to have an influence heterosexual sexual practices. If you can say it that way. LeVay claims to have found the INAH in homosexual men was twice the size of those in heterosexual men [1].

Criticism of LeVays work

LeVays work has not been replicated, and this already gives evidence for a flawed conclusion. Other studies set out to find the same correlation have failed to do so and always sided with traditionalists, in the sense that gays aren't "gay". Further note of all of the subjects in that study died of AIDS. AIDS decreases testosterone levels, meaning the difference in size might be because of the AIDS virus, not some gay gene or mutation. The homosexuals in that study did NOT have AIDS, meaning only the heterosexuals would be affected. So it makes sense homosexuals, according to his data, would have a larger hypothalamus. Now, the killer: LeVay did not even know if his subjects where gay! Brad Harrub, Ph.D. and Bert Thompson, Ph.D. and Dave Miller, Ph.D. note, "Furthermore, in a scientific environment where controls and standards are a necessity, LeVay did not possess a complete medical history of the individuals included in his study.  He therefore was forced to assume the sexual orientation of the non-AIDS victims as being heterosexual, when some may not have been."[2] What is interesting, however, is that LeVay now agrees that conversion therapy might be effective, a big flip flop isn't it [3]?

What science says

Science leads to the conclusion anyone could have guessed, being gay is not caused by the brain differences! Brain differences actually support environmental theory, that environmental factors play a role in homosexual orientation. Interestingly enough, when born, male and female brains are identical. Note, this does not mean being  heterosexual is unnatural, as genes don't always affect the brain (so this post =/= death to gay gene theory, I will deal with those theories later, but it ends the hypothalamus cause). Neil and Briar Whitehead note, 
There is remarkably little evidence of differences between boys and girls at birth. ... If only about one quarter of the neurons in the adult brain are present at birth, and the form and structure of the remaining 75% that develop, depend heavily on learning, experience, exercise and behaviour, then there are grounds for arguing that about one quarter of brain structure is biologically fixed and three quarters is the result of environmental interaction. ... If only about one quarter of the neurons in the adult brain are present at birth, and the form and structure of the remaining 75% that develop, depend heavily on learning, experience, exercise and behavior, then there are grounds for arguing that about one quarter of brain structure is biologically fixed and three quarters is the result of environmental interaction [4].
In other words, brains have no role in overall sexual orientation, and have no role in homosexual orientation. So, when looking into if a gene causes homosexuality (or heterosexuality), we must go into Hamers study and twin studies. So, if someone cites LeVay, its easy to shoot them down. The hypothalmus does not affect orientation (though does affect testosterone levels, but Whitehead notes that always changes). So no permenant preference via the brain exists. 

In another post, I will examine twin evidence and Hamers study. As finding the exact gene (as Hamer tried to do) or twin studies are the only ways to determine the born gay phenomena.



1. LeVay, Simon, “A Difference in Hypothalamic Structure Between Heterosexual and Homosexual Men,” Science, (1991).
2.  Harrub, Brad, Ph.D., Bert Thompson, Ph.D., and Dave Miller, Ph.D. "Science vs. the "Gay Gene"" Science vs. the "Gay Gene" True Origin, 2003. Web. 04 Oct. 2012. <http://www.trueorigin.org/gaygene01.asp>.
3.  Nicolosi, Linda A. "Some Gay Advocates Acknowledge Reorientation Therapy as a Legitimate Option--Simon LeVay Joins Douglas Haldeman in Qualified Support." Some Gay Advocates Acknowledge Reorientation Therapy as a Legitimate Option--Simon LeVay Joins Douglas Haldeman in Qualified Support. National Association for Research & Therapy of Homosexuality, n.d. Web. 04 Oct. 2012. <http://narth.com/docs/legitimate.html>.
4.  Whitehead, Neil, Ph.D., and Briar Whitehead, B.A. My Genes Made Me Do It!: [a Scientific Look at Sexual Orientation]. Lafayette, LA: Huntington House, 2010

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

A response to the campaign to end the death penalty

The Campaign to abolish the death penalty (nodeathpenalty.org) lists five reasons why one should oppose the death penalty. I would like to note all of these reasons are weak or wrong.

1 and 2: the death penalty is used unfairly 

Both have the same idea, so I lumped them together.

This argument is extremely weak, as it is not against the death penalty, but all punishments. For the majority of abolitionists, the racial argument is only one argument. In other words, they think other reasons prove the death penalty is unjust. However, to argue the race card merely states if it was used fairly it would be okay, which none of them would admit. There is also no reason to believe that if the race point was true (which is debatable) it would not merely enter LWOP debates. In other words, if the death penalty is racist, so it was abolished on that merit, wouldn't LWOP be racist as well and be hurting minorities? This is not an argument against the death penalty, only for the judicial system. If you believe in this argument, and think it disproves the death penalty, you must, therefore, agree all punishments are unjust.

Further note there is still debate on whether or not racial bias exists. I recently wrote a well researched article showing the academic evidence is hugely against the racial argument. The racial point relies on a few premises:

1. Blacks are 35% of those executed
2. Blacks are only 12% of the population (depending on the estimate)
3. Therefore, the death penalty is unjust

The argument begins to fail when one notices blacks commit nearly 50% of the homicides worthy of a death penalty case in this country, meaning their execution rate is actually nice. It is below what it should be, meaning we are giving amnesty [1]. I would like to note me arguing blacks commit most of the murder isn't a racist statement, it is merely a statistic which is proven by many studies. It is caused by the higher poverty rate[s]. I would also like to note the Department of Justice released a study in 2001. CNN notes, "Sources told CNN the report's [DOJ report] conclusions, in effect, reject arguments by capital punishment opponents, who this week called on President Bush to halt federal executions because they say death sentences are disproportionately imposed on members of minority groups. ... Sources told CNN the report will show that varying state laws, the decisions of individual state prosecutors, and the sharply different types of serious criminal cases [emphasis added] handled by U.S. Attorney's offices around the country will be cited as reasons that help account for the disparities cited in the earlier report"[2].

The highlighted section essentially argues what proponents have argued since the point was brought up. Race is not the biggest factor in the decision, the different types of crime is what influences the decision.  As Dudley Sharp argued in 1999, "The determining factor for sentencing in death-penalty cases is what it should be -- the aggravating nature of the crimes. Both the Rand Corp. study of 1991 and the research presented by Smith College professors Stanley Rothman and Stephen Powers in 1994 confirm that finding"[3].

In the article I previously mentioned [1], I provide a more detailed case against the racial point.

A second point made by abolitionists is that we are hurting the poor, and again the argument is just smoke and mirrors. For example, many studies have been argued by people on both sides proving X or Y, however the facts remain the same. In Georgia, for example, 78% of the murderers where considered poor, and only 38% of those on death row are considered poor [4]. Now, a rebuttal to this would be easy. For example, one could argue what I did above. Their attorneys are worse and this means they are still being executed wrongly. This argument used to be true, however is losing credibility. A study by Joshua Marquis notes, "There is no doubt that before the landmark 1963 decision in Gideon v. Wainwright appointed counsel was often inadequate. But the past few decades have seen the establishment of public defender systems that in many cases rival some of the best lawyers retained privately"[5].

Arguing the lawyers are of different quality is a weak point. Even if abolitionist prove poor people are more likely to be executed, proponents still win as we can prove most murderers are poor (so the rate would be just). We could also argue every one of those executions is just as the lawyers are of equal quality and, therefore, where justly found guilty.

The death penalty is not applied unfairly ans should not be considered discrimitory.

3. Innocents have been executed

This is the most common argument, and like all (or most) anti death penalty sentiments it is wrong. There is little proof many people have been executed, at most the number is under forty, which means the death penalty has a 99.9% success rate. I would also like to note the likelihood of executing an innocent is forever decreasing with improving forensic technology. Those executed after 2000 is almost none, and the majority of those "innocent" where executed in the 70's or 80's. With this in mind, each passing day the validity of this argument decreases.

I would also like to note the lists by the DPIC and others are highly exaggerated. Out of the many cases of "innocents" in the DPIC list, only 34 are arguably actually innocent. Ward A. Campbell, a Deputy Attorney General finds the DPIC list to have flawed methodology. First, the definition of innocence is skewed. Being acquitted means you are on the list, so you are "legally innocent". Note, however, legal innocence and actual innocence is not the same thing. For example, I may be acquitted because I am not proven without a doubt (I may be probably guilty, but not proven without a doubt), meaning I might be 100% guilty! Even if I was executed, I would hardly be innocent. With this in mind, only 34 people are actually innocent based on that list, and it is still possible they where guilty as well. In other words, there is little proof we have even executed on innocent [6]. Dudley Sharp has the same concerns, "As Dieter and other death penalty opponents make no distinction between the actually innocent and the legally innocent, why don't they claim that over 2500 innocents have been "exonerated" from death row? That is the number of legally and actually innocent released from death row since 1973 (6). The answer is obvious. They hoped that the media and others might just assume that the 102 (and the previous lesser numbers) were actually innocent and not ask any questions. And that is exactly what has happened -- a successful deception, aided by the poor fact checking standards of the media. The 2500 number, even for the media, is just too large a number for such blind acceptance.... Acquittal, which is a "not guilty" verdict, means that the state was unable to meet the necessary burden of proof, in establishing guilt beyond a reasonable doubt. It has nothing to do with establishing actual innocence.  ... A review of the DPIC 102 case descriptions finds that only about 32 claim actual innocence, with alleged proof to support the claim. 12 of those 32 are DNA cases. That is 32 cases out of about 7300 death sentences since 1973, or 0.4%. National Review's Senior Editor Ramesh Ponnuru, independently, came up with the same number for his "Bad List" article."[7] 

Innocents being executed? Ever so rarely, and the amount of lives it saves is huge. 

4. Death penalty does not deter crime

Hogwash, this point is so untrue it is laughable. The death penalty is 100% successful in preventing recidivism. According to a 1998 study, if the death penalty was used on all murders about 800 lives would be saved. A 1997 update by JFA finds the number is near 1000 [4]. Professor Paul Cassel notes, "Out of a sample of 164 paroled Georgia murderers, eight committed subsequent murders within seven years of release. A study of twenty Oregon murderers released on parole in 1979 found that one (i.e., five percent) had committed a subsequent homicide within five years of release. Another study found that of 11,404 persons originally convicted of "willful homicide" and released during 1965 and 1974, 34 were returned to prison for commission of a subsequent criminal homicide during the first year alone."[8]

Murray Rothbard noted in 1978, "Another common liberal complaint is that the death penalty does not deter murder from being committed. All sorts of statistics are slung back and forth trying to "prove" or disprove this claim. While it is impossible to prove the degree of deterrence, it seems indisputable that some murders would be deterred by the death penalty. Sometimes the liberal argument comes perilously close to maintaining that no punishment deters any crime — a manifestly absurd view that could easily be tested by removing all legal penalties for nonpayment of income tax and seeing if there is any reduction in the taxes paid. (Wanna bet?) Furthermore, the murderer himself is certainly "deterred" from any repetition of his crime — and quite permanently."[9]

Lets look deeper into his point on deterrence. Specifically, "While it is impossible to prove the degree of deterrence, it seems indisputable that some murders would be deterred by the death penalty."

The argument no punishment would be deterred by punishment of any kind is absurd,  Gary S. Becker noted in his study, which founded deterrence theory, that criminals respond to punishments. He admits some criminals, such as psychopaths, don't register cost and benefit and wont be affected. However most criminals are rational, so stricter punishments causes many criminals to be deterred. The harsher the punishment, the less crime will occur [10]. Another study 10 years later replicates these results. Paul H. Rubin and John J. Siefred find in their 1978 study criminals react, like all humans, with a cost and benefit meter in their minds. They act as humans do in economics, (like Murray Rothbard said) if we removed all penalties from taxes, less people would pay. This is a great example of deterrence theory as it shows without the punishments, our brains go wild. So it is inevitable more punishment lowers crime. As they put it, in their analogy, criminals maximize their own self interest and are subject to constraints (such as prices) that they face in life [11]. Criminals are, usually, rational actors and can be detered. The question is now, does the death penalty deter?

The evidence is actually not surprising. In the 1970s, Issac Ehrlich published a study arguing the DP deterred crime. After meeting harsh criticism from academic bodies (NAS) and other scholars, he wrote another paper addressing all criticism. A study by Stephan K Layson in 1985 reinforced Ehrlich's findings. Recent research finds 3-18 lives saved on average [12].

John Lott gives us further insight. He looked at only economic studies (not studies published by sociologists or criminologists), and he finds a large consensus. He finds 9 out of twelve economic studies find deterrence, and he published a study (in 2007) in his book freedomnomics which finds 5 lives saved. John Lott notes, "The media is a bit Johnny-come-lately in recognizing all the research that has been done on the death penalty over the last decade, with nine of the 12 refereed academic studies by economists finding that the death penalty saves lives."[13]

The CJLF has done a tally of the studies from 1996-2010, and 17 find deterrence, 5 find no deterrence, and 2 are inconclusive. The NAS report is actually falsely cited saying the DP does not deter crime, they actually admitted there is evidence for that assumption but it is "weak". Also, the citing of that paper is cherry picking at its finest as it says all research is flawed, and no conclusions can be made. Remember that when you read that on the DPIC website. There is a vast consensus amongst the published works, however, proving deterrence [14].

More data has been presented by Wesley Lowe, Lowe notes, "During the temporary suspension on capital punishment from 1972-1976, researchers gathered murder statistics across the country. In 1960, there were 56 executions in the USA and 9,140 murders. By 1964, when there were only 15 executions, the number of murders had risen to 9,250. In 1969, there were no executions and 14,590 murders, and 1975, after six more years without executions, 20,510 murders occurred rising to 23,040 in 1980 after only two executions since 1976. In summary, between 1965 and 1980, the number of annual murders in the United States skyrocketed from 9,960 to 23,040, a 131 percent increase. The murder rate -- homicides per 100,000 persons -- doubled from 5.1 to 10.2. So the number of murders grew as the number of executions shrank."[15]

Wait, hold on, states without the DP have lower crime rates! So the death penalty does not deter crime. 

 

John Lott has the same rebuttal, "This simple comparison really doesn’t prove anything. The 12 states without the death penalty have long enjoyed relatively low murder rates due to factors unrelated to capital punishment."[13]

The DP does not cause these high crime rates, other factors such as urbanization, culture, weather even, affect crime. These comparisons prove nothing. 

Issac Ehrlich called these analysis's (similar to the Times study), "[These studies are] a throwback to the vintage 1960s statistical analyses done by criminologists who compared murder rates in neighboring states where capital punishment was either legal or illegal." and that "The statistics involved in such comparisons have long been recognized as devoid of scientific merit."[18] AIM.org continues, "[W]hat is needed is an analysis that can isolate a variety of factors that influence the murder rate, including not just the legal status or even the actual enforcement of the death penalty, but also the probability of apprehension, the probability of conviction or punishment by imprisonment, the rate of unemployment, the degree of inequality in income distribution, and related economic factors that vary across the states being compared."[18] In other words, these studies have no merit as they cannot control for other factors. That rebuttal to deterrence is weak, and wrong.

Wait, cant Life in Prison deter just as much as the death penalty? However, this is unlikely as 99.9% of criminals (actual statistic) prefer life in prison to death [4]. This means that, on balance, a criminal will be detered by the death penalty more. 

Now, I saw a rebuttal to this saying this means they will kill and turn themselves in so they get a lesser sentence. When I saw that, I laughed. A criminal does not want to get caught, that's why they never admit until they are captured. It made little sense to me. Not one study proves that point, statistic, or example. It is mere speculation that has no logic whatsoever. 

The death penalty deters crime more then its alternatives, and in general. And thats a fact.

5. The death penalty is unconstitutional

This is an odd concept. Firstly, the best way to decipher the constitution is by originalism as it shows the actual meaning to the founders. And if you want to change it, amend it. But originalism is the only real way to do it [19]. In Callins v. Collins, the court noted, "The Fifth Amendment provides that '[n]o persons shall be held to answer for a capital...crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a Grand Jury...nor be deprived of life...without the due process of law.' This clearly permits the death penalty to be imposed, and establishes beyond doubt that the death penalty is not one of the 'cruel and unusual punishments' prohibited by the Eighth Amendment"[8].

In Baze v. Rees, the court notes:

 "Simply because an execution method may result in pain, either by accident or as an inescapable consequence of death, does not establish the sort of 'objectively intolerable risk of harm" that qualifies as cruel and unusual" Note, this means the botched execution argument fails. They further note, "Kentucky has adopted a method of execution believed to be the most humane available, one it shares with 35 other States... Kentucky's decision to adhere to its protocol...cannot be viewed as probative of the wanton infliction of pain under the Eighth Amendment..."[20]

In Trop v. Dulles, the court held that the DP does not fit the definition of cruel an unusual. One of those characteristics must be its popularity, and they noted due to the fact the death penalty is widespread in America and commonly accepted, it does not meet the definition of "unusual", and they find the cruel arguments lacking [21].

In sum of constitution:

--The founders supported the DP, via the 5th amendment, meaning based on origionalism and the 5th amendment (as noted in Callins v. Collins) proves the constitutional support for the death penalty.
--The courts almost always side with the death penalty in these overall cases

As we can see, the death penalty is fully justified.


Note on sources:

The prodeathpenalty.com links may have a few wrong dates as it was written month/day/year, and when I wrote this I first thought it was day/month/year. I figured this out however later. And for Rothbard, I could not find its electronically published date, so I used its original data of 1978.

1. http://homicidesurvivors.com/2012/09/25/the-racial-myth-of-the-death-penalty--.aspx
2. "U.S.: No Racial Bias in Federal Death Penalty Cases." CNN.com. Cable News Network, 06 June 2001. Web. 03 Oct. 2012. <http://archives.cnn.com/2001/LAW/06/06/justice.death.garza/>.
3. Sharp, Dudley. "Death Penalty in Black and White." Death Penalty in Black and White. Justice For All, 24 June 1999. Web. 03 Oct. 2012. <http://www.prodeathpenalty.com/racism.htm>.
4.  Sharp, Dudley. "Death Penalty Paper." Death Penalty Paper. Justice For All, 10 Jan. 1997. Web. 03 Oct. 2012. <http://www.prodeathpenalty.com/dp.html>.
5.  Marquis, Joshua. "The Myth of Innocence." Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology (2005): n. pag. Web. 3 Oct. 2012.
6.  Campbell, Ward A. "DPIC "Innocence" List." DPIC "Innocence" List. Justice For All, 10 May 2001. Web. 03 Oct. 2012. <http://www.prodeathpenalty.com/dpic.htm>.
7.  Sharp, Dudley. "Innocence." Innocence. Justice For All, 14 Apr. 2000. Web. 03 Oct. 2012. <http://www.prodeathpenalty.com/innocence.htm>.
8.  Carmical, Cassey. "The Death Penalty: Morally Defensible?" The Death Penalty: Morally Defensible? N.p., 2007. Web. 03 Oct. 2012. <http://www.hoshuha.com/articles/deathpenalty.html>.
9.  Rothbard, Murray. Ph.D. "The Libertarian Position on Capital Punishment." Ludwig Von Mises Institute, June 1978. Web. 03 Oct. 2012. <http://mises.org/daily/4468>.
10. Becker, Gary S. Ph.D. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach." Journal of Political Economy (1968).
11.  Rubin, Paul H., and John J. Siefried. "The Economics of Crime." American Economic Review (1978)
12.  Muhlhausen, David B., Ph.D.  "The Death Penalty Deters Crime and Saves Lives." The Heritage Foundation, 28 Aug. 2007. Web. 04 Oct. 2012. <http://www.heritage.org/research/testimony/the-death-penalty-deters-crime-and-saves-lives>.
13.  Lott, John R., Ph.D. "John Lott: Death as Deterrent | Fox News." Fox News. FOX News Network, 20 June 2007. Web. 03 Oct. 2012. <http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,284336,00.html>.
14. "Support CJLF." Support CJLF. Criminal Justice Legal Foundation, 2010. Web. 03 Oct. 2012. <http://www.cjlf.org/deathpenalty/dpdeterrence.htm>.
15. Lowe, Wesley. "Pro Capital Punishment Page." Pro Capital Punishment Page. Wesley Lowe.com, 17. Jan. 2011. Web. 03 Oct. 2012. <http://www.wesleylowe.com/cp.html>.
18. Irvine, Reed, and Cliff Kincaid. "New York Times Under Fire Again." Accuracy In Media. Accuracy in the Media, 16 Oct. 2000. Web. 04 Oct. 2012. <http://www.aim.org/media-monitor/new-york-times-under-fire-again/>.
19. (originally published in 1989, on the web by 2001)  Scalia, Antonin. "Originalism: The Lesser Evil." Scalia. University of Cincinnati Law Review, 2001. Web. 04 Oct. 2012. <http://sobek.colorado.edu/~bairdv/Scalia.htm>.
20. Taken from PROCON.org, but the quote first came from justice Roberts which can be found here: http://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/07-5439.ZC1.html
21. Trop v. Dulles, 1958, Chief Justice Earl Warren