Using the RCP demographic calculator, I have attempted to model what the election results would be with different GOP candidates. I assume the democratic nominee is Hillary Clinton.
Trump
Whites: I slightly increases Trump's victory margin among whites and give him 61%, but leave turnout at the same level as the 2012 election.
Hispanics: As Trump has a 14% favorable rating among Hispanics, but 79% are familiar with him, I am generous and give him 20% of the Hispanic vote BUT I increase turnout as his comments against Mexicans will likely make them angry and drive them to the polls.
Blacks: I increase black turnout because they have had an increasing turnout level since 2000 even before Obama ran for office. I keep his share of Black voters the same as Romney's -- 11%.
Asians: I lower Asian support for Trump versus Romney by 1% to 30%. I keep turnout the same.
Trump loses 157 - 381 and only garners 45.3% of the popular vote.
Although I doubt Texas would go blue still, the overall projection looks reasonable.
Bush
Whites: With only a 37% favorability rating among GOP voters, I actually lower his share of the white vote to 60%, but as it is a non-midterm presidential election, I slightly increase white voter turnout.
Hispanics: Bush actually has a decent favorability rating with hispanics, currently the best in the field, so I give him 40% of the Hispanic vote -- his brother got 44% in 2004, and as Jeb can speak fluent Spanish, I am giving him the benefit of the doubt. I slightly increase Hispanic turnout to 50%.
Blacks: At least Jeb Bush is trying when it comes to African Americans. I give him a modest boost, but nothing significant: he gets 15% of the black vote, again turnout increases because it is part of a long-term trend.
Asians: I leave Asian turnout and percent the same as 2012.
Jeb Bush loses 266 - 272, but interestingly he wins the popular vote 50.3 - 49.7, however, this is too small a difference to say he would win the popular vote. For all intents and purposes, the PV is tied.
Marco Rubio
Whites: I increase Rubio's portion of the white vote to 62%, as he is a dynamic candidate who I believe would be able to win more whites despite his ethnic difference. I also slightly increase white voter turnout to 65%.
Hispanics: While Rubio's favorability among Hispanics is slightly lower than Jeb Bush, I give him a larger percent of the Hispanic vote. His fluency in Spanish is the same as Bush, but being able to tell his story of rising from nothing will resonate among Hispanic voters because he grew up in the same situation as they have (or are currently living). I think Rubio could win 50% of the Hispanic vote, but I give him 45% as I don't want to overestimate. I also increase Hispanic turnout to 50% as those that do vote for Rubio may do so to make history--he would benefit from the same thing Obama benefited from in 2008.
Blacks: I don't see Rubio winning over many African American voters. I increase turnout to 68% to follow the historical trends. I give Rubio a slight boost -- 10% of the African American vote (compared to 6% for Romney) simply because Rubio is much more talented than any GOP candidate since Reagan.
Asians: I leave Asian turnout and percent the same as 2012.
Rubio wins 300 - 238, and wins the popular vote 51.6% to Hillary's 48.4%. However, this simulation gave Rubio PA, which is debatable, so assuming he loses PA he wins 285 - 253, a more reasonable prediction.
Rubio seems to do best with my assumptions. The tool is linked above, so you can make your own predictions -- tell me what you think!
Trump
Whites: I slightly increases Trump's victory margin among whites and give him 61%, but leave turnout at the same level as the 2012 election.
Hispanics: As Trump has a 14% favorable rating among Hispanics, but 79% are familiar with him, I am generous and give him 20% of the Hispanic vote BUT I increase turnout as his comments against Mexicans will likely make them angry and drive them to the polls.
Blacks: I increase black turnout because they have had an increasing turnout level since 2000 even before Obama ran for office. I keep his share of Black voters the same as Romney's -- 11%.
Asians: I lower Asian support for Trump versus Romney by 1% to 30%. I keep turnout the same.
Trump loses 157 - 381 and only garners 45.3% of the popular vote.
Although I doubt Texas would go blue still, the overall projection looks reasonable.
Bush
Whites: With only a 37% favorability rating among GOP voters, I actually lower his share of the white vote to 60%, but as it is a non-midterm presidential election, I slightly increase white voter turnout.
Hispanics: Bush actually has a decent favorability rating with hispanics, currently the best in the field, so I give him 40% of the Hispanic vote -- his brother got 44% in 2004, and as Jeb can speak fluent Spanish, I am giving him the benefit of the doubt. I slightly increase Hispanic turnout to 50%.
Blacks: At least Jeb Bush is trying when it comes to African Americans. I give him a modest boost, but nothing significant: he gets 15% of the black vote, again turnout increases because it is part of a long-term trend.
Asians: I leave Asian turnout and percent the same as 2012.
Jeb Bush loses 266 - 272, but interestingly he wins the popular vote 50.3 - 49.7, however, this is too small a difference to say he would win the popular vote. For all intents and purposes, the PV is tied.
Marco Rubio
Whites: I increase Rubio's portion of the white vote to 62%, as he is a dynamic candidate who I believe would be able to win more whites despite his ethnic difference. I also slightly increase white voter turnout to 65%.
Hispanics: While Rubio's favorability among Hispanics is slightly lower than Jeb Bush, I give him a larger percent of the Hispanic vote. His fluency in Spanish is the same as Bush, but being able to tell his story of rising from nothing will resonate among Hispanic voters because he grew up in the same situation as they have (or are currently living). I think Rubio could win 50% of the Hispanic vote, but I give him 45% as I don't want to overestimate. I also increase Hispanic turnout to 50% as those that do vote for Rubio may do so to make history--he would benefit from the same thing Obama benefited from in 2008.
Blacks: I don't see Rubio winning over many African American voters. I increase turnout to 68% to follow the historical trends. I give Rubio a slight boost -- 10% of the African American vote (compared to 6% for Romney) simply because Rubio is much more talented than any GOP candidate since Reagan.
Asians: I leave Asian turnout and percent the same as 2012.
Rubio wins 300 - 238, and wins the popular vote 51.6% to Hillary's 48.4%. However, this simulation gave Rubio PA, which is debatable, so assuming he loses PA he wins 285 - 253, a more reasonable prediction.
Rubio seems to do best with my assumptions. The tool is linked above, so you can make your own predictions -- tell me what you think!
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