With Dick Morris and Fox news declaring Romney victory—in some cases, they argue a landslide—and the majority of the liberal media and many "real" polls giving Romney a 0.2% chance of winning, who is correct? Who will win?
I am no pollster, and I don't want anyone to think what I am saying will be true. I want it to be true (some of them), and I am trying my best to ignore my biases and see who will really win—and by how much. So I have made three of the most likely scenarios that will happen Tuesday.
1) Ohio saves Romney:
Ohio rarely goes far from the national vote—almost always does it go in that direction. And I truly think Romney will succeed in swaying the majority of the electorate considering he has a 10-20 point lead amongst independents and that republicans usually do better then they poll. Assuming he wins Ohio (and a few other swing states I bet he will win: Florida, VA, WV, Indiana, and Colorado. Based on current polls, that's understandable).
In this scenario, Romney wins with 275 electoral votes, Obama 263.
2) Obama wins Ohio, Romney gets Iowa, Wisconsin, and NH,--WV goes for Johnson
Yes, some polls give WV a win for Gary Johnson. So I will do this scenario with and without WV going for Johnson.
WV going for Johnson: Romney 272 - Obama 261
WV going Romney (likely): Romney 277 - Obama 261
WV going Obama: Romney 272 - Obama 266
3) Obama gets Ohio, Iowa, and NH... And Wisconsin
Sadly, this is (if it happens) how Obama will win. It wont be close, like Romney scenario one and two. Its a comfortable, but not landslide, win.
Obama: 286 - Romney 252
For other predictions:
Dick Morris: http://www.dickmorris.com/prediction-romney-325-obama-213/
Lanny Davis: http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/11/05/my-prediction-obama-will-and-should-win-on-election-day/
Just throwing a little economic post done by economist John Lott for those still wanting to research before a vote: http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/11/02/obama-and-economy/
And, so I don't seem to biased (I am) I would like you to note my scenario 3 is similar to this liberal writers prediction. I guess we agree, in a bad way: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/11/05/my-election-prediction-the-polls-will-be-right-and-obama-will-win-with-290-electoral-votes/
If i have to say anything, scenario's 2 or three seem like the most likely. I will post after the election :)
Have a good night.
I am no pollster, and I don't want anyone to think what I am saying will be true. I want it to be true (some of them), and I am trying my best to ignore my biases and see who will really win—and by how much. So I have made three of the most likely scenarios that will happen Tuesday.
1) Ohio saves Romney:
Ohio rarely goes far from the national vote—almost always does it go in that direction. And I truly think Romney will succeed in swaying the majority of the electorate considering he has a 10-20 point lead amongst independents and that republicans usually do better then they poll. Assuming he wins Ohio (and a few other swing states I bet he will win: Florida, VA, WV, Indiana, and Colorado. Based on current polls, that's understandable).
In this scenario, Romney wins with 275 electoral votes, Obama 263.
2) Obama wins Ohio, Romney gets Iowa, Wisconsin, and NH,--WV goes for Johnson
Yes, some polls give WV a win for Gary Johnson. So I will do this scenario with and without WV going for Johnson.
WV going for Johnson: Romney 272 - Obama 261
WV going Romney (likely): Romney 277 - Obama 261
WV going Obama: Romney 272 - Obama 266
3) Obama gets Ohio, Iowa, and NH... And Wisconsin
Sadly, this is (if it happens) how Obama will win. It wont be close, like Romney scenario one and two. Its a comfortable, but not landslide, win.
Obama: 286 - Romney 252
For other predictions:
Dick Morris: http://www.dickmorris.com/prediction-romney-325-obama-213/
Lanny Davis: http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/11/05/my-prediction-obama-will-and-should-win-on-election-day/
Just throwing a little economic post done by economist John Lott for those still wanting to research before a vote: http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/11/02/obama-and-economy/
And, so I don't seem to biased (I am) I would like you to note my scenario 3 is similar to this liberal writers prediction. I guess we agree, in a bad way: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/11/05/my-election-prediction-the-polls-will-be-right-and-obama-will-win-with-290-electoral-votes/
If i have to say anything, scenario's 2 or three seem like the most likely. I will post after the election :)
Have a good night.
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