The new Quinnipiac poll can be seen here. There is a five way tie in the Republican primary: Rubio, Bush, Walker, Huckabee, and Carson at 10%. At least in the last election cycle there was a front runner, Bachman, even if she ended up losing. Everyone predicted a Romney win. Now, it seems like any of those guys can pull it off. Bush has the most money, but the others have well-funded PACs. And Rubio might have the Obama zeal. Republicans may look down on that, but having the political skill of Obama is not a bad thing; it may give us the best chance to beat Hillary.
The poll also included theoretical match ups. Rubio and Paul did the best against Clinton, only losing by 4 points. The margin of error was 2.6%, so they could only be behind 1.4%. This is surprising because Hillary has near 100% name recognition, whereas Rubio and Paul likely are behind. She leads Christie by 9%, Huckabee by 7%, Bush by 10%, Walker by 8%, Cruz by 11%, and Trump by 18%. It seems as though Rubio and Paul, in these early polls, do the best against Hillary.
It should be noted that a FOX poll shows Jeb ahead by 1%, and a second FOX poll (3/29-2/31) shows them tied. But the RCP average shows Jeb behind by 8.1% and Rubio behind by 7.6%. Paul is behind 7.7%, according to RCP, a tie with Rubio.
Remember, it is too early to tell who will win the primaries or whether or not Clinton will win or lose. But Rubio and Paul seem to be the best in a theoretical fight with Clinton--and this is before Rubio can go onto Univision and speak Spanish to the growing minority and spread the word. I can't find a modern poll, but a 2014 poll shows 40% of Americans not knowing who Rubio or Cruz even are. As name recognition increases, Republicans often do poorly. But Rubio--who is conservative--seems to be able to run as a moderate. His background, speaking skills, and likable persona may reverse the trend of awareness harming the candidate. I am of the firm opinion that Rubio is the most electable candidate--despite being one of the most conservative ones--the GOP has fielded. And I think he can beat Hillary; only time can tell.
The poll also included theoretical match ups. Rubio and Paul did the best against Clinton, only losing by 4 points. The margin of error was 2.6%, so they could only be behind 1.4%. This is surprising because Hillary has near 100% name recognition, whereas Rubio and Paul likely are behind. She leads Christie by 9%, Huckabee by 7%, Bush by 10%, Walker by 8%, Cruz by 11%, and Trump by 18%. It seems as though Rubio and Paul, in these early polls, do the best against Hillary.
It should be noted that a FOX poll shows Jeb ahead by 1%, and a second FOX poll (3/29-2/31) shows them tied. But the RCP average shows Jeb behind by 8.1% and Rubio behind by 7.6%. Paul is behind 7.7%, according to RCP, a tie with Rubio.
Remember, it is too early to tell who will win the primaries or whether or not Clinton will win or lose. But Rubio and Paul seem to be the best in a theoretical fight with Clinton--and this is before Rubio can go onto Univision and speak Spanish to the growing minority and spread the word. I can't find a modern poll, but a 2014 poll shows 40% of Americans not knowing who Rubio or Cruz even are. As name recognition increases, Republicans often do poorly. But Rubio--who is conservative--seems to be able to run as a moderate. His background, speaking skills, and likable persona may reverse the trend of awareness harming the candidate. I am of the firm opinion that Rubio is the most electable candidate--despite being one of the most conservative ones--the GOP has fielded. And I think he can beat Hillary; only time can tell.
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